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A famous scholar once said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
For years in the NFL, it was insane to count out the New England Patriots, especially after early-season blunders or close losses. The Brady-Belichick Patriots dropped plenty of September and October games over the years but only missed the playoffs one time between 2003 and 2019.
The cream always rose to the top.
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Nowadays, the Kansas City Chiefs are the league powerhouse, yet some pundits search for cracks in the armor every time they lose before Halloween.
You'd think people would’ve learned their lesson by now.
Kansas City started the season with two losses in three games, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes operated with a shorthanded room of playmakers. And let's not forget, the Chiefs were 2.5-point home underdogs to Lamar Jackson and the big, bad Baltimore Ravens during the last weekend of September.
Mahomes threw four touchdowns and K.C. won 37-20.
"The Chiefs catching points at home is an auto bet for me," one professional bettor told me from Las Vegas. "That’s as close as it gets to a free lunch."
After beating Baltimore to improve to 2-2, Kansas City lost at Jacksonville, then came home and toppled the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead.
The Chiefs had no penalties in their last victory.
"Wait, really?" Westgate SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray cracked from his office. "I didn’t keep a close eye on that game after leaving here on Sunday night. Zero penalties?
"What a league."
Murray and his team of bookmakers know better than to slide the Chiefs too far in the early going. They’ve seen this movie many times before.
"There’s nobody who is a clear-cut favorite over Kansas City on a neutral [field] right now," Murray continued. "I would’ve said Buffalo -1, but they’re struggling the last two weeks. Philadelphia is struggling. Baltimore is decimated by injuries. Detroit and Kansas City might be a pick ‘em."
Super Bowl odds at Westgate SuperBook
Bills: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Chiefs: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Lions: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Packers: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Rams: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Eagles: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Broncos: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Colts: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Buccaneers: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Chargers: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
49ers: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Commanders: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Murray also knows as the stage gets brighter, there’s no fazing the Chiefs due to their championship moxie and postseason experience.
The bigger the game, the stronger they are.
As someone who bet the Bills this August at 7-1 to win their first Super Bowl, I’m already bracing for the inevitable — another heartbreaking defeat against the league’s best quarterback-head coach combo.
Sigh.
"Mahomes and Andy Reid know each other and trust each other," Murray said. "There’s nothing that will rattle that team. They have no problem going on the road in the playoffs. We’ve seen the Chiefs go into Baltimore and Buffalo to make it to the Super Bowl. They’ve won so many big games over the years.
"You’re completely crazy to count them out."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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