Final stretch: Mamdani's large lead shrinking as Cuomo gains ground in NYC mayoral race

With under three weeks until Election Day, Zohran Mamdani holds a double-digit lead in the race for the nation's most populous city, but former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is narrowing the gap, according to the latest public polling.

The tightening contest underscores how Cuomo’s independent bid continues to draw support from disaffected Democrats following Mayor Eric Adams’ withdrawal.

Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist state lawmaker from the New York City borough of Queens who shocked the political world in June with his convincing win over Cuomo and nine other candidates to capture the Democratic Party's mayoral nomination, stands at 46% support among likely voters in the most recent survey in the race, from Quinnipiac University.

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New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani speaks to volunteers at a canvass launch in Brooklyn on Sept. 28, 2025.  (Michael Nigro/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid multiple scandals and who is running as an independent candidate in the general election after losing the primary, had 33% support in the survey, which was conducted Oct. 3–7.

Guardian Angels co-founder Curtis Sliwa, who for a second straight election is the Republican mayoral nominee in the Democratic-dominated city, stood at 15% in the poll.

Quinnipiac's survey was the only major poll in the field entirely after embattled Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat who was running for re-election as an independent, dropped out of the race. 

In Quinnipiac University's previous poll, conducted in early September, Mamdani held a 22-point 45%-23% lead over Cuomo, with Sliwa at 15% and Adams at 12%.

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"The numbers changed, but the contours of the race haven't. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams' supporters, cutting into Zohran Mamdani's lead, but Mamdani's frontrunner status by double digits stays intact," Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow said last week, when the survey was released.

But Cuomo's campaign spotlighted the poll, with longtime spokesman Rich Azzopardi claiming in a statement that the survey confirmed that "this race is shifting decisively" and that "Mamdani remains stagnant."

Andrew Cuomo, New York City mayoral candidate and former New York Governor, speaks during a press conference on Aug. 4, 2025, in New York City. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

According to the survey, Mamdani was winning the enthusiasm battle with 90% of his supporters saying they were very or somewhat enthusiastic. The level of enthusiasm dropped to 85% among Sliwa supporters and down to 69% among those backing Cuomo.

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A Fox News poll of New York City voters, just before Adams bowed out of the race, asked respondents their second choice candidate. Without Adams in the running, Mamdani topped Cuomo 45%-31% among registered voters, with Sliwa at 13%.

Among likely voters, Mamdani's lead over Cuomo edged up to 48%-32%, with Sliwa at 13%.

Republican mayoral nominee Curtis Sliwa is interviewed by Fox News Digital in New York City on Aug. 18, 2025. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

The Ugandan-born Mamdani, if elected, would become the first Muslim and first millennial mayor in New York City's history.

Mamdani surged to the Democratic primary victory thanks to an energetic campaign that put a major focus on affordability and New York City's high cost of living. It was fueled by a grassroots army of supporters and backing from top national progressive champions, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

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Mamdani made smart use of social media platforms, including TikTok, as he engaged low-propensity voters. He proposed eliminating fares to ride New York City's vast bus system, making CUNY (City University of New York) "tuition-free," freezing rents on municipal housing, offering free childcare for children up to age 5 and setting up government-run grocery stores.

Mamdani has been heavily criticized by his rivals not only for his far-left proposals, but also for his criticism of Israel, his past negative comments regarding the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and his proposal to shift certain responsibilities away from the NYPD and focus on social services and community-based programs.