Met Office gives first verdict on winter weather outlook

The Met Office has revealed what kind of weather Britons could expect this winter as it gives its first outlook on the next three months.

The forecasters have said this winter is most likely to bring average or milder conditions in its three-month outlook for October to December.

There will be a 55 per cent chance that the season will be considered “near average”, which is 0.9 times the normal chance. There will be a 30 per cent chance that the season will be “mild”, which is 1.5 times the normal chance.

Meanwhile, there is only a 15 per cent chance the season will be considered “cold”, 0.8 times the normal chance.

“Consistent with our warming climate, there is an increase in the likelihood of mild conditions through the three-month period overall,” the outlook states.

“However, with an increased chance of northwesterly or northerly outbreaks there is a greater chance of spells of colder weather, with winter hazards more likely than usual, later in the period.”

In terms of precipitation, there was a 70 per cent chance the UK would see “near average” amounts. There is a 20 per cent chance the season will be “dry” and 10 per cent chance it will be wet.

“The chances of a wet three-month period are less than normal,” the outlook states.

“However, the chance of a dry three-month period is around normal, due to an increased likelihood of high pressure patterns influencing the south of the UK. Nevertheless, regional variations in rainfall are to be expected.”

The Met Office said that with “northwesterly weather patterns and lower-than-normal pressure to the north”, much of the rainfall may occur in upland regions in the north and northwest of the UK.

Meanwhile, areas in the east and south of the country are likely to have less chance of being wet, and a greater chance of being dry.

There is a 20 per cent chance the months ahead will be “windy”, the expected chance. Meanwhile, there is 65 per cent chance winds will be “near average” and 15 per cent chance it will be “calm”.

The outlook states: “Through this 3-month period, these show an increased chance of higher-than-normal pressure across or near to the south or southwest of the UK and lower-than-normal pressure to the north of the UK.

“This favours a greater-than-usual frequency of northwesterly winds.”

The outlook predicts how likely each category is compared to their normal likelihoods which is 60 per cent for “normal” and 20 per cent for the higher or lower categories. It predicts whether each category will differ from normal, based on knowledge of expected global meteorological patterns.