Why Now? The Lost Chances to Reach a Hostage Deal, and a Cease-Fire, Months Ago

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News Analysis

On Gaza, President Trump put few, if any, guardrails on Israel’s offensive, bucking international demands for a cease-fire. Then he changed course.

Pictures and posters of people surround an outdoor fountain.
A memorial in Tel Aviv for victims of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.Credit...Amit Elkayam for The New York Times

David E. SangerAdam Rasgon

By David E. Sanger and Adam Rasgon

David E. Sanger has covered five American presidents and writes often on superpower conflict, the subject of his latest book. Adam Rasgon covers Israel and the occupied territories, with a special focus on Palestinian politics. They reported from Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

Oct. 12, 2025Updated 3:33 p.m. ET

Why now? Why did it take 736 days?

That was the question coursing through the celebrations on the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Saturday night, as hundreds of thousands of people poured into Hostage Square. They were anticipating the release early Monday of the 20 hostages believed still alive and the possible end of a brutal war that left Gaza destroyed, and Israel at once stronger and more diplomatically isolated than ever.

Holding up photos of the remaining hostages, the crowds cheered on Saturday evening at the mention of President Trump, who many Israelis believe forced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize this moment. They listened intently to Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, address the cheering throngs.

But overarching the moment was the question of whether this deal could have been done far sooner, when more hostages may have been alive, and before tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed. That argument lay behind the boos that ran through the crowd when Mr. Witkoff mentioned Mr. Netanyahu. Hearing the reaction, Mr. Witkoff tried to defend Mr. Netanyahu, insisting that “I was in the trenches with the prime minister” and saw how he was seeking “a safer, stronger future for the Jewish people.” That was met with more booing.

Historians may argue for years whether the Israel-Hamas war could have ended a year ago this week, when Israeli forces tripped upon and killed Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief and architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. Or, alternatively, whether Israel and Hamas missed a chance to build on the cease-fire that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and his aides left in place before Mr. Trump took over. Despite the fact that Mr. Witkoff was involved in the January deal, it did not stick, and early in Mr. Trump’s term the war resumed, bringing with it more death and suffering.

Debates over how wars could have ended sooner, and saved thousands or millions of lives, are hardly new. Historians are still arguing over whether Japan would have surrendered anyway if President Harry S. Truman had decided against dropping two atomic weapons; whether President Richard M. Nixon waited years too long to get out of Vietnam. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump argued for an earlier exit from Afghanistan.

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Steve Witkoff, along with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, during a gathering in Tel Aviv on Saturday.Credit...David Guttenfelder/The New York Times

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