Why oddsmakers might be making a big mistake counting out Joey Logano’s NASCAR title run

Joey Logano is listed last among playoff drivers in the odds by several bookmakers. Even though Logano is entering the Round of 8 in the last spot, history suggests that writing off the defending Cup champion's title chances might be a big mistake despite his 24-point deficit.

Non-playoff driver Shane van Gisbergen won at the Charlotte Roval. That outcome did not surprise most, but heading to the Round of 8 opener this weekend, several betting odds for the Las Vegas race have favored overall playoff performance and placed Logano under safer expectations among drivers like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron. Larson has won more often than any other driver on intermediate tracks since 2022, but he hasn't won a race this season since his third Cup win at Kansas Speedway in May.

NASCAR Cup Series odds on DraftKings place Ryan Blaney at the board with +400 odds at the title and safely list Logano as the least likely champion among the final eight.

Meanwhile, Logano has four career wins at Las Vegas, more than any active driver there. Just last year, his chances to enter the Round of 8 looked dire until Alex Bowman was disqualified at the Roval. That freed up a spot for Logano just when he needed it, and the following week, he passed for the lead with six laps remaining at the 1.5-mile oval in Vegas. His aggressive fuel strategy helped him seize the late lead.

Journalist Toby Christie wrote on X:

"Man, Las Vegas has not been paying attention to this Playoff format if they have [Joey Logano] at +1000. This is a round full of great tracks for him, and then Phoenix where they have been virtually unstoppable."

Logano has also excelled at superspeedways. He has three career wins at Talladega and no finish outside the top-10 since 2020 at Martinsville. Even with his point deficit, he can build momentum across these circuits.

Joey Logano thrives in 'high-pressure moments'

Joey Logano has mastered the playoff format, and it might not be surprising if he pulls off a repeat of the 2024 or 2022 seasons, where he won at Vegas and Phoenix to claim the Cup title. Or, land a win at Martinsville like his 2018 championship run.

During the latest episode of Rubbin' is Racing, the No. 22 Ford driver talked about how his team handles high-pressure situations better than others.

"We've done a good job at handling the big time pressure moments. ... The playoffs are going to put drivers in or the athlete in general in these high pressure moments. And not everybody is made out for it," Joey Logano said (31:50).

Logano would become just the fifth driver in the Cup series history to have four titles if he wins his fourth Cup championship.

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Edited by Hitesh Nigam