2025 F1 US GP: Top 5 bold predictions

The 2025 F1 US GP kicks off the final quarter of the season and it begins with the circus heading to Austin. When the second half of the season began, not many would have expected things to unravel the way they have.

Out of the blue, Max Verstappen is now a title contender, at least with an outside shot. At the same time, we have the papaya wars slowly starting to heat up. The race in Austin be a sprint weekend so what can we expect from the race? Who should we look out for and who might be the one that turns out to be a dark horse. Let's take a look.

#5 We're heading for a one-stop race

For the F1 US GP, Pirelli has made a slight change in the tire compounds compared to last season. In 2024, the supplier brought C2, C3, and C4 to the race, but this time around it is bringing C1, C3, and C4. In essence, it has gone one step harder in the configuration.

The aim is to possibly shake things up a little and bring more strategic variance to the race, but if you are bringing a harder compound to the race, it's just going to help the teams lean even more towards a one-stopper compared to maybe a potential two-stopper if it went a step softer. The on-track action might not be the best this weekend.

#4 Except for Haas and Alpine, expect every other midfield to be in the mix

It does appear that both Haas and Alpine have fallen off compared to the rest of the midfield as the season has progressed. At the same time, teams like Racing Bulls, Sauber, and Aston Martin have made tangible steps in the right direction over the last few months.

COTA offers something for everyone in all three sectors, as the cars with brilliant top speed have the long straights to help them out, and then we have the first sector that mimics the Senna esses of Suzuka, coupled with the slow-speed section in the third sector. It's going to be an amalgamation of all of them as all these midfield teams with different strengths and weaknesses try to one-up each other.

#3 Mercedes won't replicate the form from Singapore

Mercedes' form around Singapore was something of a head scratcher for a lot of people (including the team itself). The car looked quite brilliant under the lights, and some of it has been attributed to the front wing modifications that have been implemented.

Moving from Singapore to Austin, however, the track characteristics are different, and the F1 US GP would be run in searing heat. In those specific conditions, Mercedes might struggle to replicate what it has been able to accomplish in the last couple of races.

#2 Ferrari could be a dark horse here

The slightly bumpy nature of COTA does mean that Ferrari could potentially be forced to run the car higher than what is ideal, which would impact the overall performance. Having said that, we expect the F1 US GP to take place during a period of soaring temperatures.

These are the kind of conditions where the car is essentially able to get the tires up to temperature optimally. It's hard to pick which side of the spectrum Ferrari could fall on this weekend, but it won't come as a surprise if the car is potentially in the fight for a podium.

#1 Max Verstappen wins the F1 US GP

The chances of a Max Verstappen win increased significantly when one looked at the tire compound allocation because it means that Red Bull's key weakness compared to McLaren could potentially not become an issue.

The RB21 has had a lot of work done and has shown significant improvements in areas like slow-speed sections as well as the long straights. Well, there are two massive straights in COTA, which should help the car, but the one area where the car was expected to struggle was tire wear because of the higher temperatures in which the F1 US GP would be run.

The allocation of the C1 tire could potentially alleviate those concerns. Last season, the Red Bull was rapid over a lap but struggled in races. With 12 months of improvement, we're backing Max Verstappen to secure pole position for the F1 US GP and then manage the race from that point.

Edited by Charanjot Singh Kohli